When an individual’s portfolio has reached a certain numerical value (i.e. $1 million, $2.5 million, $5 million, etc.), he tends to lock-in that valuation in his mind and is unwilling for it to move lower – at times even desiring to move to cash in order to preserve the valuation. If the market or his stock declines below the level in which he has locked-in the valuation, this can lead to irrational behavior driving the investor to sell his stocks at a lower valuation while also losing the dividend income from his investment.
Though I've never used illicit drugs, I do regularly drink caffeine through my coffee habit, consume alcohol via two or three glasses of wine a year, and have ingested nicotine having smoked a handful of cigars over the past couple of decades. As a libertarian on social issues, I won't comment on whether or not marijuana or other drugs should be legalized. As a fiduciary charged with providing a sound rate of return for my clients, I don't make any moral judgements on companies in which I invest as there is too much grey involved in making a judgment as to the goodness or evil of a company's people or its goods.
We have a very few clients who always call or email when the market sells off asking what we should do and why it is happening. The honest answer of course is that the stock market is declining simply because there are more sellers than buyers when panic sets in and investors move to the exits. There doesn’t have to be one specific reason - particularly in today’s algorithmically driven market. There is a proliferation of passive ETFs and mutual funds which are driven primarily by large growth/momentum stocks (i.e. FANG – Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google) which have begun to sell off from high valuations. When fear or greed overcomes the market, stock volatility is exacerbated as mathematical algorithms hit certain levels driving sell or buy signals. Thus, selling by computers begets more selling and in the reverse, buying can beget buying.
I'm in the only business in which no one wants to purchase something when it is 25% lower in price!
This past week, a client asked the good question of why we would purchase a company such as Mattel which has declined in value and sell or trim our positions in companies which have risen in price - particularly when the company doesn't pay a dividend which is generally at the core of our philosophy and critical to our client's future retirement success. Because this question goes to the core of our investment process, I thought I would share my answer with our friends, clients and investors. My reply email is enclosed as follows: